Peru vs Chile Prediction – Copa America 2024 Picks (2024)

Our soccer betting picks are picking against Peru in their Copa America opener, as Chile's mediocre run in World Cup qualifying looks tremendous when compared to the Inca's poor efforts.

With aging squads and managers still carving out a new identity, Peru and Chile are in similar boats as they square off on Friday in their opening game of Copa America 2024.

The Group A headlines are predictably focused on Lionel Messi and Argentina, but there’s room for one of these teams to muscle their way into the knockout round, and Chile enter as favorites here in the latest Copa America odds.

While one look at the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table confirms that both teams are in a rut, my free Peru vs. Chile predictions explore whether this big tournament stage could provide a much-needed spark for the latter.

Peru vs Chile picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
Chile moneyline (+107 at Betano)

My analysis

Chile’s haul of five points from six World Cup qualifiers doesn’t look great, until you see Peru sitting rock bottom with two measly points and just a single goal from their six outings. The old glory years are becoming a distant memory for both these nations.

Judging by the trends, a goalfest feels unlikely at AT&T Stadium on Friday, but I’m picking Chile to make a winning start to their Copa America campaign — perhaps even with a repeat of their 2-0 win over Peru in a World Cup qualifier last year.

While neither team is likely to set the tournament alight with their attacking options, Chile seemingly have the upper hand in that department and can count on more difference-makers in their front four.

Veterans Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas won’t get many more chances on the Copa America stage, and they still have a little magic left up their sleeves, though the absence of Arturo Vidal takes some of the steel out of the La Roja midfield.

I’m even more encouraged to take the Chile moneyline here after their resounding 3-0 win over Paraguay in Tuesday’s friendly matchup, with Vargas on the scoresheet and Victor Davila netting twice. That’s a good sign — and Ricardo Gareca’s men caught the eye in their March friendlies too, beating Albania 3-0 and losing narrowly to France.

Though Peru have been more organized under Jorge Fossati, this team is very much a work in progress and the lack of goal threats remains a huge obstacle for the Incas to overcome. Paolo Guerrero is 40 and alternatives are in short supply, so it was welcome sight to see Edison Flores score in the recent friendly against El Salvador.

It feels like no sure thing that Chile will advance from this tricky Group A, but I expect La Roja to do just enough to put three points on the board here.

Peru vs Chile same-game parlay (SGP)

It’s no secret that both these teams are short on cutting edge in the final third, even if Chile have looked sharper in their past three outings. Sanchez is a potential game-changer from the No. 10 role, but this has the feel of a 1-0 contest.

I’m expecting a tight, physical battle but limited clear-cut chances. That makes the Under on 2.5 goals worth grabbing for my SGP despite the short odds. It’s been a winning ticket in 13 of Peru’s last 15 contests. The Incas were shut out in five straight World Cup qualifiers before a 1-1 draw with Venezuela in November.

Continuing the theme of a tough-tackling contest, I’m taking the Over on 1.5 cards for a Peru team that are regulars in the referee’s notebook. They’ve picked up at least two cards in six straight World Cup qualifiers, including four bookings in a loss to Bolivia.

That approach is likely to carry over to the Copa America, with Fossati’s men set to be on the back foot for most of the tournament. It would be no surprise to see the Incas try to set the tone with some early challenges.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Peru vs Chile odds

Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-16.

Peru vs Chile game info

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