At a Glance
- Through Friday: A flow of deep tropical moisture will likely lead to flooding in Florida.
- Early next week: A tropical depression or storm could form in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
- Regardless, heavy rain could soak parts of Louisiana, Texas, eastern Mexico and Central America.
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Tropical moisture will continue to fuel locally heavy rain that could trigger more flooding in Florida today. After that, we'll turn our attention to the western Gulf of Mexico for the possible formation of a tropical depression or storm next week, and that potential developing system could bring heavy rain to parts of the northern and western Gulf Coasts, regardless.
Florida's Soaking Status
More heavy rain is ahead for soaked Florida. South Florida has the greatest risk of additional flooding today as more tropical moisture streams across the state. Rainfall should become more spotty over the weekend, but we can't completely rule out locally heavy downpours.
The National Weather Service has posted a flood watch across much of southern Florida, including Naples, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and the Florida Keys. Urban areas and locations already saturated by heavy rain will be most prone to flooding.
Below is a look at the latest radar along with any alerts that are in effect from the National Weather Service.
This flooding rainfall Florida has seen in recent days was produced by a tropical disturbance called Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. That disturbance has now moved past the state and still has a low chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm off the Southeast coast, or well east of Florida.
Watching Western Gulf Tropical Development Next Week
A tropical depression or storm could form in the western Gulf. Computer forecast models increasingly suggest a broader area of lower pressure will develop over Central America and southern Mexico. Multiple waves of lower pressure may ripple across the southern Gulf of Mexico or the eastern Pacific through early next week.
Wind shear, a typical nemesis of developing tropical systems, may be strong near the northern Gulf Coast next week, but may be light enough around the Bay of Campeche to allow for development early next week. And as we've been discussing ad nauseum since spring, Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, easily supportive of tropical development.
If a more concise storm system does develop, the majority of forecast guidance suggests it would move slowly west or west-northwest through the western Gulf sometime next week.
But this scenario could change. Check back with us at weather.com for updates in the days ahead.
The first two names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are "Alberto", then "Beryl".
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Another soaking, regardless: Whether or not tropical development happens next week, the same computer forecast models suggest the upper-air pattern will change enough to slide this conveyor belt of deep, tropical moisture westward.
That would bring locally heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to as far west as Texas and eastern Mexico, beginning Sunday and lasting well into the week.
Exactly where the heaviest rain could fall remains uncertain this far out in time. This shift should also give the Florida Peninsula a break from heavy rain.
Florida's Wet Recap
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 feet have drenched South Florida. Serious flooding unfolded Wednesday in the Miami-Dade and Broward County areas of South Florida, prompting a rare flash flood emergency warning to be issued by the National Weather Service. Rainfall totals on Wednesday alone were 10 to 15 inches in those areas.
Totals this week ending early Friday are now over 21 inches in Miami Shores and 20 inches in the Hallandale area of Broward County. One location in the Everglades of Collier County has now seen over two feet of rain.
It's not just South Florida that's been drenched this week. Sarasota was hit by flooding rainfall late Tuesday.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM
- Why The Atlantic's Slow Start To Hurricane Season Is Meaningless
- How To Prepare For Hurricane Season
- Florida's Wet Season Has Arrived
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
