After a disappointing second-round exit, what's next for the Thunder? (2024)

DALLAS — Two mistakes ultimately doomed the Oklahoma City Thunder late Saturday night in Dallas, defining the final seconds of their Game 6 loss and second-round elimination, ending a 57-win dream season in abrupt, sour fashion.

The first came from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, their MVP candidate and the main reason they led by 1 point late. Gilgeous-Alexander had 36 points. His eighth assist was a lob to Chet Holmgren with 20.6 seconds left, putting the Thunder up 116-115. But on the deciding possession of the series, Gilgeous-Alexander tried to block a P.J. Washington corner 3 and, after initially clipping the basketball, his arm slid down to Washington’s elbow, earning the whistle.

“I shouldn’t have fouled him,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “We talk about it all year, the little things that go into winning games. The discipline. It sucks.”

The second mistake came from Mark Daigneault, the NBA Coach of the Year and considered one of the rising minds in the league. He had one timeout and a challenge still available to him. Considering the weight of the moment, he opted to use it.

But the decision backfired. The officials watched the replay and quickly confirmed the foul. Because of the challenge, the Thunder lost their final timeout, which meant they couldn’t advance their inbound into the frontcourt or design a play. Washington made the first two free throws, missed the third intentionally and Jalen Williams was forced into a full-court heave. The Dallas Mavericks won 117-116 without the Thunder getting a true final possession.

“I thought any chance that we could take points off the board and reverse that call would be worth the risk,” Daigneault said. “That’s why I went and got it.”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: “I shouldn’t have fouled him.” Said he can’t/won’t watch replay. pic.twitter.com/NAWvIiobHD

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) May 19, 2024

Zoom out and the totality of this Thunder season is a significant success. Their rebuild hit warp speed. They jumped from the Play-In bracket to 57 wins and the top seed in the loaded West. Their star, Gilgeous-Alexander, finished second in MVP voting and then produced in the playoffs at a level (30.2 points on 50/43/79 shooting splits) that further legitimized his standing as an alpha star on a contender.

Behind him, Jalen Williams made a massive second-year leap as a valued two-way wing. He will enter the next phase of his career as an All-Star candidate. Chet Holmgren recovered from a serious foot injury to play all 82 games in his delayed rookie season, arriving as an elite rim protector and efficient secondary scorer. The roster behind them complemented nicely.

But playoff runs reveal warts, and this core’s first postseason together surfaced blemishes and generated questions.

Josh Giddey’s long-term fit enters the spotlight. Giddey was drafted as a tall guard with passing and playmaking skills but with concerns about his defense and shooting. He had an encouraging first season, winning Rookie of the Month four times. But the court calculus around him changed. Because of Gilgeous-Alexander’s explosion and Williams’ ascension, Giddey has been bumped to a lower-usage role mostly off the ball (where floor-spacing and defensive versatility are paramount).

That isn’t conducive to Giddey’s strengths and heightens his weaknesses. The Mavericks cross-matched their centers onto Giddey whenever he was on the floor in this series and parked them in the paint, unafraid that Giddey could burn them over the top. He didn’t. Giddey went 3-of-16 on 3s in the series and the Thunder lost his court time by 23 points.

Daigneault responded swiftly. They anticipated the Mavericks’ scheme and limited Giddey to 17, 11, 13, 12, 12 and 11 minutes in the six games, his six lowest minute totals since December. He didn’t start the second half of Games 2 and 4. He was replaced in the starting lineup by Isaiah Joe in Games 5 and 6.

The Thunder don’t necessarily have to decide on Giddey’s future this summer, but the urgency is rising. Next season, he will make a reasonable $8.3 million in the final year of his rookie deal, but he’s extension eligible this summer, which is typically long-term decision time on players. Because of how quickly they’ve entered contention, the fifth spot in the Thunder’s starting lineup (and their allocation of future funds) has grown in importance.

If they go searching for a veteran upgrade, Giddey profiles as a trade candidate if the Thunder compiled a package built around a chunk of their valuable first-rounders. That includes the 12th overall pick in June’s draft, obtained from the Rockets. The Thunder will get expensive soon — once the eventual big Williams and Holmgren contracts are due — but they will have some cap flexibility in the two seasons prior, depending on how they want to use it.

Let’s assume that Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Luguentz Dort and Holmgren return, making up four-fifths of their starting and closing lineup. They have Joe, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Jaylin Williams under cheap team control. Daigneault used all four at various times as helpful rotation players against the Mavericks.

Joe started the last two games. Wiggins opened the second half of Game 2. Wallace closed the Game 4 win. Jaylin Williams closed in Game 6, as Daigneault went to the rarely used double big lineup, getting extra beef on the interior to aid Holmgren, who was struggling to fight off Dereck Lively II and the stronger Mavericks.

“Trying to help out on the glass specifically,” Daigneault said. “Not just on the glass. They were finding bigs on some of the dunk-downs. (We were) just trying to get more cumulative size on the floor.”

At their most vulnerable moment, staring elimination in the face, the Thunder tried to get an extra big man on the floor. That could be informative when wondering how general manager Sam Presti might rearrange the roster this offseason. OKC had a defensive rebound rate of 66.8 percent against Dallas, worse than its regular season clip (69.8), which was bottom-five in the league.

The Thunder have a five-out identity and have prioritized the ability to make plays from every position while building the roster. Nothing indicated that they’re looking to stray away from that to add brute size, but an extra big body on the interior (especially one that can capably hit a 3 and pass on the move) appears the biggest need, either at power forward next to Holmgren or at backup center behind him.

“I’m not going to make commentary on our roster,” Daigneault said. “Clearly our roster was good enough this year to win a lot of games, be the one-seed in a tough conference. We had everything we needed. Tonight, in this series, they were better, but I wouldn’t look at that as an indictment on anything. It’s painful. We thought we had a chance to accomplish something special. But we can turn this pain into growth.”

Daigneault and the Thunder said they felt they lost the series between Games 2 through 5 when the offense hit the skids. The Mavericks packed the paint egregiously, sagging off Giddey, Dort, Wiggins, Wallace and even Holmgren. They collectively went cold from 3. Holmgren went 6-of-27 from 3 in the series. The ball stagnated. They couldn’t get into the paint. They struggled to adjust.

“There are only so many ways you can get played,” Daigneault said. “There’s a limited number. We’ve seen them all this year. As time goes on, you get more comfortable attacking them. In a playoff series, they all get thrown at you. Whatever vulnerabilities you have, the other team is going to try to expose. We tried to do it to Dallas and New Orleans. They tried to do it to us. That’s how you learn.”

The Thunder stopped involving Dort and Wallace and other guards in some of the screen action, which had clogged the flow. Holmgren spent much of Game 6 in the dunker spot, freeing him for some lobs. They collectively attacked with more decisiveness and rediscovered their drive-and-kick game. They had their best offensive night of the series in the elimination game. But it was too late.

“I guess how to course correct,” Gilgeous-Alexander said when asked what lessons had been learned. “The best teams are able to figure out the issue and fix the problem (snaps fingers) in a really fast time. That’s what ultimately allows you to win quarters, win games. You see it all over the league. You just saw it with Denver, their ability to course correct and get back on the road. This is a learning experience for all of us.”

The Thunder could’ve been more aggressive at the trade deadline. They helped the Mavericks facilitate the Daniel Gafford deal with Washington, improving a future asset in the process. They sent out a bad salary to acquire Gordon Hayward’s expiring $31.5 million deal, clearing their future books.

There was hope Hayward might help some in the meantime. He didn’t. Hayward played 46 playoff minutes. He scored zero points. He was out of the rotation by the middle of the Mavericks series. He’s not likely to return to the Thunder next season.

But that’s a fringe-level concern for a budding core that has one of the brightest futures in the NBA.

“We can feel it,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “We definitely took a step in the right direction this year, to say the least. This moment stings. You don’t ever want to lose. But there were definitely some good things to come out of it. Moments like this is what makes champions.”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the Thunder’s future: “We can feel it…Moments like this is what makes champions.” pic.twitter.com/6KrP3nDGeo

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) May 19, 2024

(Photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leaping to defend against P.J. Washington: Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)

Anthony Slater is a senior writer covering the Golden State Warriors for The Athletic. He's covered the NBA for a decade. Previously, he reported on the Oklahoma City Thunder for The Oklahoman. Follow Anthony on Twitter @anthonyVslater